Republican 155 - 338 Democrat
04:54: So that's it, then. I can't say that Barack Obama is the best choice for my personal interests, but then again I can't say honestly that he isn't the best choice for America at this moment in time. I have a great distrust of his policies pertaining to Israel and the middle east, but have full faith in his ability to turn around the spiralling debts the US has dug itself into over the last 8 years of Republican rule. I'm not sure if it's the spectre of George W. Bush, the tiredness of McCain's 'straight shooter' schtick or the dead-eyed shark-grin of Sarah Palin, but the Republicans have lost a landslide here. People on every news report around the world are going crazy, and I'm going to bed. I hope anyone reading has enjoyed these updates, and enjoyed them more than the dry commentary supplied by everyone else.
Goodnight.
04:23: And so he does. McCain and Palin are now on stage, delivering their concession speech. I was going to be around until 6 this morning if things were going to be tight, but it looks like I'm going to get to bed earlier than expected tonight. Barack Obama is to be the next President of the United States of America.
04:22: McCain has at least taken his home state of Arizona. Now would be the time to graciously concede.
04:20: Obama also takes Florida, taking his total to 333. McCain must surely now come out and concede - there is absolutely no way he can win this thing, even if the projections for the powerful west coast states are all completely out of whack.
04:17: Obama takes Colorado, but it's not like any results matter from here on out - he already has double the electoral votes of John McCain with a now almost irrelevant number remaining. This has truly been a disaster for McCain, who must be looking back wondering exactly where it went wrong. Arguments will be made that Barack Obama has engineered a triumph of empty charisma over learned experience, but the fact is the Republicans should have learned from the mistakes of the Democrats in 2004, and realised that charisma wins votes.
04:06: What now for John McCain's campaign? It's not nailed on that he's lost - there could be a massive turnaround in uncompleted counts in many states that have been called for Obama - but any change in fortunes for him at this point seems unlikely. The man is 72, he would be 76 by the time 2012 rolls around and so he is unlikely to be the Republican to challenge the incumbent Barack Obama. Sarah Palin, too, is unlikely to be back because her value as a diverse candidate is vastly outweighed by her reputation as an insane beauty queen with a machine gun. The Republican party can now go one of two ways - return to it's recent core of conservative Christian values, which McCain played down in order to appeal to more centrist voters in a move which has clearly backfired spectacularly on the party, or press on with what McCain has tried to create, but be sure to remove the fundamentalist spectre of the Palin sort of Republican from public view come 2012.
04:00: I'm calling it, Barack Obama victory. He takes Virginia with around 98% of districts counted, and that means victory for the Democrats even if McCain does the impossible and overturns already-projected Obama victories in California, Washington, Hawaii and Oregon. McCain takes Idaho, but it's unlikely to be any sort of consolation prize. Democrats win, President Barack Obama is on the way. I expect McCain will be out within the half hour to concede the election.
03:57: The Virginia vote really must be going right to the wire given how long it's going on. McCain really needs to take the state, along with Florida, Indiana and North Carolina or he's dead in the water. I really expect him to concede if any of them fall to the Democrats, as it truly would doom his campaign.
03:53: There's now talk that McCain will soon emerge to speak to his supporters, and I'd be lying if I didn't say there's a chance he could concede. It might be less embarrassing to the party if he gives up now instead of seeing his credibility shattered in a landslide. On the other hand, the BBC is reporting that Republicans in Pennsylvania are keeping the faith until 100% of votes are counted.
03:49: I have to say I'm surprised. I thought like most people before the election that Obama would win, but I thought it would go to the wire. As it turns out, it looks like he's won the election almost without the help of California's massive 55 votes, and if he can win in Virginia and North Carolina, he could almost tie a bow around the Hollywood state and give it to McCain as a present and still comfortably take the Presidency. I hope all my doubts about Obama are misplaced and there is actually some depth to his promises of change, and I genuinely believe he wants to make things different, even if I don't agree with some of the things he likely wants to change. It looks like now we'll get to see what he was talking about.
03:46: Fox News of all places is now projecting an Obama win in Virginia, while other sources are also suggesting he's just barely ahead in extremely tight voting in North Carolina. If he takes both, McCain's campaign wouldn't just be over, it would be crushed. This could into an embarrassing landslide.
03:44: Somewhere in the mix I seem to have forgotten to mention that McCain is projected to take Nebraska. Oh well, he is. Sorry about that.
03:41: Some sources are now calling South Dakota for McCain. It's only 3 votes, just like it's northern brother, but as I've said before, McCain needs to win all of these low-scoring states to stand any chance of victory. He's now on 141.
03:38: There's now only 7 states that aren't at least counting - Alaska, Hawaii, California, Nevada, Idaho, Oregon and Washington. Get a move on, lads.
03:36: Should I consider Indiana a key state? It has 11 votes, and they have a result coming in soon, so I think I will, just so we have some excitement to keep me going. I also need to put the bins out, but I know as soon as I get up and do it all these remaining states are going to announce their results all at once.
03:33: Reuters is reporting that the Democrats in the Senate are going to fall short of their projected 60-seat super-majority, so not all is going entirely to plan. I'm sure they don't mind, however, as they head seemingly towards victory in all three major elections this evening.
03:31: There's a whole bunch of states with results expected in soon - North Carolina, Florida and Indiana must be gearing up to make their announcements. There's also Virginia, but I think we'll be waiting for their result until 2012.
03:28: McCain has taken North Dakota, upping the Republican total to 138. It's a small number of votes, but he's going to need to win every single state he has a chance in in order to win, so this is a little boost that keeps him in the race, for now.
03:24: The electoral college vs. popular vote debate is looking sure to rear it's head again, as McCain is less than 2% behind in the popular vote with 48.5% to Obama's 50.4%. With McCain likely to take more states than Obama from the remaining pool even if it doesn't secure him enough electoral college votes to win, it's an interesting situation - McCain could easily come out having won the popular vote but losing the election. American talk radio must already be sharpening it's tongues.
03:21: The Democrats are also holding strong leads in the Senate and House of Representatives races, at 52 - 36 and 143 - 87 respectively. Many Republicans are alledgedly already looking to these votes instead of the now-thought-lost Presidential race, but they seem unlikely to find any solace there, either.
03:14: If this is the way things are going to finish, I can't help but think that Sarah Palin may have torpedoed her own party's hopes. It may have been politically smart to go for a female Vice Presidential candidate to run against a black Presidential candidate, but Palin's ultra-right sensibilities have rubbed even her own party up the wrong way, and may have alienated voters in moderately Republican districts who identified with McCain's 'maverick', straight-shooting image, but were never going to back someone who's idea of entertainment is to fly over a forest in a helicopter firing a machine gun at game animals. Just like the Democrats and John Kerry four years ago, the losing party could well have hung themselves with bad candidate choices.
03:13: Where is that Virginia vote? We've been hanging on this for hours.
03:08: If any state, any state at all other than California and Hawaii sides with Obama, he wins. Unless it's Montana or South Dakota, in which case he'd need just one more. McCain really is hanging on by his fingertips now.
03:02: Obama has taken Iowa, who weren't even projecting partial results until they announced their result. Mopping up just one or two more other small states will likely push Obama past the post, regardless of the remaining key east coast states. Still no news from them, but McCain has taken Utah. It's unlikely to be a great comfort, as things are slipping away from him fast.
03:00: Virginia's 13 electoral college votes, plus Hawaii's 3, would push Obama past the winning post with California almost invariably voting Democrat. If Virginia goes to the Democrats, I'm calling it for Obama.
02:56: The Virginia result creeps ever closer, with approximately 75% of precincts now counted. With 13 electoral college votes, they can't quite decide everything on their own, but it's near as damnit. News coming in suggests McCain has taken Mississippi, taking him to 130, but he's going to need more.
02:54: The BBC have already subtlely called the election in favour of Obama by pointing out that Ohio has picked the winning candidate in every election since 1964. They've also announced that the Republicans have conceded the state.
02:50: Fun fact: Mathematically, if all results are correct, McCain now needs to win every remaining state except Democrat strongholds Hawaii and California to beat Obama to the winning post and take the election. On the other hand, Barack Obama need only garner 12 more electoral college votes from those same undecided states. That's either one battleground state or approximately two and a half smaller ones.
02:42: Something for McCain supporters to cling on to now as he finally breaks into three figures, with Republican stronghold Texas going as most predicted. That's 34 electoral college votes for McCain, but he really does need Florida, Virginia and North Carolina to stand any chance now. Also, even with those victories, any more losses in the central states could spell the end of his campaign.
02:41: The Virginia result can't be far away now. This one could decide it.
02:38: Barack Obama is now projected to win New Mexico. It's only 5 electoral votes, but it's taking away the vital points McCain needs to pick up from the low-vote-count, central states. I'd say he's now one big victory away from certain success.
02:33: Seven minutes later, I'm successfully drained, and McCain's won two states. Louisiana and West Virginia have sided with the Republican, but between them are only worth 14 votes - he needs Florida more than words could possibly express, and could need Virginia and North Carolina, too. If the Democrats take both, I'll be calling the 2008 US Presidential election for Obama.
02:26: Reports are coming in that Ohio has gone to the Democrats. That pretty much spells the end of John McCain's campaign, as it would now take a big switch in a major Democrat stronghold to earn him votes to beat Barack Obama to the winning post. Florida's still unannounced, but I'm going for a wee. I do hope there are no major historical events while I'm away.
02:14: To illustrate how important the remaining two east-coast swing states are, if Obama takes Florida he only needs to get Hawaii to vote Democrat - which they traditionally do - to pass the winning post barring a bizarre and unlikely swing by California. On the other hand, McCain needs to take Florida to stand any chance of matching Obama's total by the end of the election.It's a similar deal with Ohio, but Obama might need at least one other state as well as Hawaii to push him past the winning post if he takes Ohio but not Florida. It's more delicately poised than it looks, but not by much - this is make or break for McCain.
02:10: To go out on not too fragile a limb, we can assume at this point that Barack Obama has 230 guaranteed votes and John McCain has 110, factoring in California's likely vote for the Democrat and Texas' inevitable vote for the Republican. That and the winning post being 270 should give you some idea of the uphill battle being fought by the McCain/Palin campaign.
02:06: He's taken one of them, at least. Georgia has voted as predicted and given John McCain 15 more electoral college votes. It shows up the strangeness of this college system that a win in one state can be worth more than three others combined. The Republicans won't be complaining, though, as he's now less than 100 points behind for the first time in a while. He's now only 99 behind.
02:00: It's all off again, and now Barack Obama is within 100 votes of winning the 2008 US Presidential Election. He's taken New York and Rhode Island, as predicted, as well as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois. I expect he only really needs around 40 more votes from other states, given that I'd expect he's all but guaranteed to take California. McCain fights back by taking Kansas, Wyoming and North Dakota, but they're worth a measly 11 electoral college votes total. He needs to start winning big states, and maybe now needs to take all three big swing states to stay in the race.
01:54: Some news agencies are apparently calling Georgia for McCain. That would give the Republican 64 electoral college votes, and give him one of the key three I think he needs to win in order to give himself a decent run-in platform.
01:48: The last north-east stopout except Rhode Island. I really am sorry.
01:45: Partial results in for Ohio now, leaving New York as the only remaining north-east stop-out. If Ohio turns out to be as important as it has been in past elections, this could be key, but we still might not find out for a while which way it's gone - Florida's been on partial results for coming up to two hours.
01:43: They must have heard me. Partial results for Michigan now coming in, but nobody's yet sure which side it's gone to. At least they're trying.
01:39: No partial results, either, for the deciding state for the last two elections, the fine state of Ohio. Of the two big states left in the north-east, New York is almost certainly going for Obama, leaving Ohio the only key battleground in the north-east quarter, and they don't even have the decency to count faster. Also no partial results for Michigan, another big state close by.
01:32: The sweep begins. McCain has made ground up by taking Republican strongholds Arkansas and Alabama, a total of 15 votes, but we're still waiting on Florida, Georgia and Texas. If McCain can take two of those - and he probably will - he'll be doing OK. If he can take all three, he's right back in it. New York are still holding out on even partial results, so it seems Obama is staying on 103 for a while yet. I'd also completely forgotten Rhode Island. Sorry. They're holding out too.
01:26: Seems like things are calming down a bit over there. Now I can eat. Even so, with a number of traditionally Republican and big-scoring states declaring partial results, this could be McCain's chance to get back into it and set himself up with a decent total for the inevitable red sweep across the cheap middle states.
01:23: Another interesting fact to note - despite the huge gulf of electoral college votes, McCain is only 4% behind in the popular vote, with 47.5% to Obama's 51.7%. If the percentages for both measures stay roughly the same, we're going to hear the same awkward questions about the representative value of the electoral college as we heard last time out, only this time from the other side.
01:18: Partial results for the state of Texas are coming in. If the Lone Star State does as predicted and sides with McCain, the Republican will double his stake - the largest state by geographical area is also a huge state in the Electoral College, with 34 votes to cast. 34 votes that at this point would certainly make Mr. McCain's campaign look a great deal healthier.
01:15: BlandPoll, the only election coverage to include the words 'fuck', 'piss' and 'tits'. Intellectual election coverage from the internet.
01:12: It's all going tits-up for the Republicans so far in this election, they're losing everywhere: 103 - 34 in the Presidential election, 43 - 29 in the Senate vote, and 21 - 13 in the House of Representatives. If they've in any way managed to piss off their core voters in the central states, this could be something of a whitewash. Oh dear.
01:09: Full or partial results are in for everywhere along the east coast, all except New York. If Obama takes every state he's expected to down the eastern seaboard, he'll be more than halfway there, and will only need to pick up a smattering of central states to win, given that California, wielder of 55 precious electoral college votes, hasn't voted Republican since the age of the dinosaurs.
01:06: Everyone's favourite state you've never really heard of, New Jersey, goes to Obama, taking him past the treble-figures post and over a third of the way to winning the election. McCain's 'Straight Talk Air' plane has apparently landed and he's off to a party, but at the moment he might be more drinking to forget.
01:04: I can't even keep up with eating my sandwiches. Illinois has gone to Obama, and it looks like even though McCain took the small-potatoes prize of first into double figures, Obama might be the first into double.
01:02: Fucking hell, it's all kicking off now. Obama's torn into a huge eastern-seaboard fuelled lead, taking Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maryland, Delware and Washington D.C., while McCain has struck back with victories in the Republican heartlands of Tennessee and Oklahoma. Told you it would pick up.
00:59: An interesting fact to note is that 90% of the Twitter updates the BBC are mentioning are in support of Obama. This is probably a reflection of Obama's greater influence amongst young voters, but there's also a chance it's more reflective of his supposedly more intellectual, tech-savvy audience.
00:54: South Carolina goes to the Republicans, taking McCain into double figures and leaving Obama on 3. The early Democrat surge I was certain was going to appear is yet to take flight, but it's early days. They need to start picking up states, however, as the central states, while individually worth little, will likely become a valuable swathe of red as the night continues.
00:48: An important issue is resolved as I help myself to a cup of tea and a cheese sandwich. In other news, American news agencies are calling West Virginia for McCain. That wouldn't exactly go against predictions, but no confirmation has come through as yet. It's another small state, with 5 electoral college votes, though it would take McCain into double figures first. Not that that means anything.
00:37: Anybody reading my updates instead of any of the far more professional ones from, frankly any other proper news source, you're in luck, as I've just had a shedload of work dropped on me by a colleague, so it looks like I'm here for the duration. With it being 8-3 for the last 40 minutes, you might be starting to think this could be a slow crawl towards the key total of 270, but with many states carrying far more electoral college votes - California with 55, Texas with 34, for example - several key states, counted early, could decide this election quicker than you might expect.
00:30: Plenty of results expected in soon, with announcements from most of the eastern seaboard expected imminently, while polls are currently closing in West Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio, two key battlegrounds and the one state that gave both sides nightmares the last two times around. Hopefully we'll start to see the true pattern of the election emerging some time in the next hour, because I think I might have bitten off more than I can chew in promising to keep you updated all night.
00:26: The BBC's coverage is suggesting that, if the Democrats get the percentage of the Senate that it looks like they're heading for, they could pass any bill they like. That is, presumably, any bill they like that wouldn't lead to Pat Robertson steering a hurricane at them or, as the BBC suggests, Rush Limbaugh bursting into flames.
00:23: And they're off. The first results in the US Presidential election have started to come in, and at the moment John McCain is in the lead, though only because the one state he's taken is slightly larger than the one state Barack Obama has. Kentucky, land of bourbon and horses, is currently keeping the Republican ahead of his rival, who has Vermont, land of... something that isn't bourbon or horses. More results expected soon.
No comments:
Post a Comment